Work Package 5 (WP5) has the following objectives:

1. To develop a set of qualitative and quantitative community resilience and recovery models and performance indicator metrics, which consider stakeholders’ and community inter-relationships as well as cost/benefit models of preparedness and response actions for improved resilience;
2. To develop and test algorithms for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) for real-time (OEF and EEW) and near real-time (RRE) disaster prevention integrating frameworks, models, and datasets from WP3 and WP4;
3. To develop protocols for response, emergency management, and safety communication – including uncertainties, to technical stakeholders, nontechnical stakeholders, and the public.

Work Package 5 (WP5) aims at reviewing, harmonizing, and integrating the knowledge and methodologies from WP1, WP3 and WP4 to develop Decision Support Systems (DSS) frameworks to assess the real-time and near real-time risk and effective emergency response strategies. Each DSS will take the form of an easy-to-use set of algorithms enabled with various data and application plugin options, wherein the stakeholders involved in risk management and emergency response for each testbed (TB) will be provided with an interactive platform (WP6) that provides timely information (and not just data) to make the most effective and informed decision on rapid response strategies based on holistic hazard risk assessments. Indeed, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) and Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) may be used for short‐term and real-time seismic risk management in regions affected by seismic swarms. To this aim, the OEF and EEW hazard components from WP3 can be combined with physical and systemic vulnerability assessment tools from WP4 to derive consequence-based risk and resilience metrics and design resilience-increasing solutions.

Risk and resilience forecasting, in terms of economic loss (repair cost), number of people affected and casualties, and business interruption (downtime) will be used within the proposed DSSs for cost/benefit analysis and/or multicriteria decision-making procedure with quantitative and qualitative data to support decisions, compare different options for risk mitigation and then to optimally allocate resources. For instance, given a set of possible risk mitigation actions {A₁,A₂,…A_i,…A_n}, which includes the option of no action, and the expected value of the loss and resilience metrics, associated to each of them {E[L|A₁],E[L|A₂],…E[L|A_i],…E[L|A_n]}, which includes the cost to undertake the action, a criterion for the optional decision (D) is to undertake the action A*∈{A₁,A₂,…,A_n} such that the estimated expected loss is minimized (or the expected resilience metrics are maximized).

This will result in a complete end-to-end framework – from real-time seismic hazard information to induced damage and loss models for decision making – for real-time efficient risk mitigation actions in OEF, EEW and RRE applications.

The outputs from WP5 represent the methodological approach (developing implementation tools) for the TURNkey platform in WP6.

Task 5.1: Development of stakeholder performance metrics; System dynamic approach to risk management (Task lead: ARU) (M4-M14)

Task 5.2: Community resilience and recovery models (Task lead: UCL) (M4-M18)

Task 5.3: Development of Decision Support System (DSS) for OEF and EEW (Task lead: UCL) (M9-M28)

Task 5.4: Development of Decision Support System (DSS) for post-event rapid response also accounting for aftershocks (Task lead: BRGM) (M12-M28)

Task 5.5: Development of protocols for response, emergency management, and safety communication – including uncertainties (to technical stakeholders, nontechnical stakeholders, the public) (Task lead: B80) (M12-M28)

D5.1: Report on stakeholder performance metrics (Lead Beneficiary: ARU) (M14)

D5.2: Report on community resilience and recovery models (Lead Beneficiary: UCL) (M18)

D5.3/D5.4: Algorithms and accompanying report for Decision Support System (DSS) for OEF and EEW (Lead Beneficiary: UCL) (M28)

D5.5/D5.6: Algorithms and accompanying report for Decision Support System (DSS) for RRE (Lead Beneficiary: BRGM) (M28)

D5.7: Report on protocols for response, emergency management, and safety communication (Lead Beneficiary: B80) (M28)